Who's Ahead?

Eager political prognosticators, seeking significant portents in last week's off-year elections, could find just about any answers they wanted to find. Democrats were pleased that they held their own in once Republican Indiana (71 Democratic cities to 36 Republican) and rejoiced over a landslide election of a Democratic Governor in Kentucky. Republicans pointed with pride to significant gains in Ohio's municipal elections and New Jersey's state assembly. One erstwhile Republican oddity emerged from oblivion to become the mayor of Salt Lake City, and another returned to it in trying to become mayor of Philadelphia (see below).

A Gallup pulse reading, reported this week, provided Republicans with more solid occupational therapy, gave Democrats something to ponder. Last May the pollsters divided the U.S. public into five occupational groups, put the question to each: "Which political party do you think serves the interest of your group best?" The May answers showed a dramatic drop in Republican popularity, most notably a 9% decline among business and professional people. When Gallup popped the same question this month, he got a surprising response. Fifteen percent of the unskilled workers (against 11% in May), 16% of the skilled workers (18% in May), and 20% of the farmers (no change) said they prefer the Republicans. But the biggest change of heart was taking place in the ranks of the white-collar workers and among business and professional people. The results:

Business and Professional Groups

May November

Republican 40% 58% Democratic 32% 15% Undecided, etc. 28% 27%

White-Collar Workers

May November

Republican 29% 34% Democratic 40% 32% Undecided, etc. 31% 34%

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