The Quiet Election

''Perhaps," mused Pollster Sam Lubell this week, "I should hedge my election predictions." Then he added: "But in simple honesty, I can't." Lubell's major prediction: "President Dwight D. Eisenhower should prove a fairly easy winner in the voting on Nov. 6."

Sam Lubell's qualms, however vague, were shared by other political analysts. As the 1956 campaign entered its final week, the result looked almost too clear-cut to be true. The U.S. voter was far from apathetic, a fact reflected by record registration in many states. He seemed interested--but strangely quiet. There were remarkably few campaign buttons and stickers, remarkably few barroom arguments, remarkably few impassioned doorbell ringers. In the presidential race between Republican Dwight Eisenhower and Democrat Adlai Stevenson, the strange atmosphere of quiet wrapped up the Republicans' secret hopes for an unprecedented landslide; it held the Democrats' last hopes for upsetting the form charts. The quiet was, in fact, about the only unfathomed factor of the 1956 campaign; every other index pointed to Eisenhower's reelection, probably with more than 380 electoral votes (see box).

Down to the Line. Candidate Stevenson had firmly grasped an issue that seemed to be pulling him backward. The issue: national defense, with special reference to ending hydrogen bomb tests (see below) and the military draft. In no state did TIME correspondents last week find Stevenson gaining because of his national defense proposals. In several, the correspondents found that Adlai had been hurt, because former Stevensonites seemed more willing to trust the nation's defense to Dwight Eisenhower.

At the same time, Eisenhower's campaign was steadily expanding. His decision to speak this week in Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma and Tennessee (as well as Florida and Pennsylvania, which were already leaning his way) indicated that he is ready to battle right down to the line for at least four states that a few weeks ago were rated solid for Stevenson. From state after state came reports that Ike was holding, or even increasing, his vote among women. The much-publicized farm revolt appeared moribund. Negro shifts to Eisenhower were indicated in such states as New York, Maryland and Delaware. Pollster Lubell's campaign discovery was that "the overwhelming majorities which Franklin Roosevelt and even Harry Truman drew in our largest cities simply aren't there any more."

Chance of a Tie. With the increased possibility of a big Eisenhower victory, the Republican chances for controlling the Congress were enhanced. Historically, the congressional elections are strongly influenced by presidential trends, and the Republicans now stand better than even to win the House. The Senate is more in doubt, since ten Republican seats are at stake in close states as against seven Democratic. Best G.O.P. breakthrough hopes are in Kentucky and New York. But at week's end Democrats are generally favored to win Republican seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, which would still give them control by 49 to 47. Democrats have dwindling outside chances to win G.O.P. places in California, Connecticut, Idaho and Maryland. But Republicans have even solider hopes of upsetting Democrats in West Virginia and Oregon.

There is a possibility that when the U.S. Senate convenes next year it will be divided 48 to 48--with the Vice President casting the deciding vote. There is a strong probability that G.O.P. Candidate Richard Nixon will be there to cast it, and that Dwight D. Eisenhower will once again be lodged at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue in the White House.

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