KEY STATE-NEW YORK

IN any presidential election, the greatest prize among the 48 states is New York (45 electoral votes). This is the situation in the Empire State:

Geography: New York is divided into three parts. The city (comprising five counties), its suburbs (three counties) and "upstate." The city is overwhelmingly Democratic, the suburbs and upstate heavily Republican. New York elections are decided by which area goes its way by the biggest margin. The city's counties (called boroughs) are themselves divided (Manhattan, The Bronx and Brooklyn are Democratic; Queens and Richmond are Republican), but the net result is almost always Democratic. The politicians' rule of thumb has been that a Democrat who goes over the wall from New York City with a 500,000-vote margin will carry the state. There are indications in 1952 that this figure is out of date and that the Democrats will have to get a city plurality of 600,000 or better to carry the state.

History: New York's political history is as divided as its political geography. From the end of Grover Cleveland's second term to the beginning of Franklin Roosevelt's first (36 years), it went Republican in every presidential election except 1912. In 1932, the state switched back to the Democratic side in the presidential race, and stayed there through all of Franklin Roosevelt's era. In 1948, Tom Dewey carried it only because Henry Wallace's Progressive Party siphoned off 500,000 votes that were mostly Democratic. Dewey's margin in carrying the state: 60,000. New York now has one Democratic Senator (Lehman), and one Republican (Ives). Of the state's 45 U.S. Representatives, 23 are Democrats, 22 Republicans.

1952 Registration: New York is the only state where citizens must register for every election (except residents of communities under 5,000 population, which have permanent registration). For this reason, registration figures mean much more in New York than in other states. In New York City, 95% of those who register also vote. Biggest gains in this year's registration came in areas which normally vote Republican. In the "southern tier," the ten counties lying along the Pennsylvania border, the gain was 18%, in Republican Queens it was 21%, in Nassau, biggest of the suburban counties, 52.7%. In important Democratic areas there were only slight gains, and even some losses.

The gains are partially explained by the fact that the population of major Republican areas (e.g., Nassau and Queens) has increased greatly, while the population of Democratic strongholds (e.g., Brooklyn) has not. Most of the new residents of these G.O.P. districts moved from Democratic areas. A fascinating question for political analysts : How many of the movers will keep the political coloration of their old district, and how many will take on the complexion of their new home? The long experience of Nassau County indicates that new voters there are Republican in the same proportion as old voters, i.e., 70%.

Increased population does not explain all of the gain in Republican areas. In Manhattan, where there has been no great change in population, registration increased in most election districts that went Republican in 1948, remained static or fell off in most of the Democratic districts.

More New York women registered than ever before, and they registered early. Republicans hopefully see this early rush to register, with gains in G.O.P. districts, as an indication that there will be a great protest vote against the Truman Administration.

For U.S. Senator: Republican Irving M. Ives, 56, is seeking a second term on the kind of record New Yorkers like: liberal on labor and civil rights.

Ives has two opponents. The Democratic nominee is Brooklyn Borough President John Cashmore, 57, a politician little known outside his borough. The Liberal Party, backing Adlai Stevenson, refused to go along with the

Cashmore nomination and picked George Sylvester Counts, 62, a professor of education at Columbia University. If anything is sure in politics, Ives is a sure winner.

For President: As Dwight Eisenhower traveled through the Middle West, working with the Taft section of the party and appearing on platforms with Senators McCarthy and Jenner, he lost votes in New York. Tom Dewey, now devoting most of his time to the campaign, helped somewhat to counteract this drift away from the Republican candidate.

The Democratic campaign also got off to a slow start in New York. Although Adlai Stevenson had been in the state twice, things did not get rolling until Harry Truman's first visit.

Organizationally, the Republicans are better off than the Democrats, a rather new situation for New York. Tom Dewey's organizations, including Rural Citizens for Ike and Ives who are canvassing every country road, are hard at work. In suburban Westchester County, the Citizens for Eisenhower have one of their best organizations in the U.S. Among the Democratic problems: Tammany Boss Carmine DeSapio has lost control of city hall and is occupied by an internal battle to hold his leadership; Bronx Boss Ed Flynn is ill and inactive.

The American Labor Party's presidential candidate, Vincent Hallinan, is expected to get from 75,000 to 200,000 of the 500,000 votes Henry Wallace got on that ticket in 1948. Nearly all of the rest of the Wallace vote will go to Stevenson.

This week, the incomplete New York Daily News poll (which was right in 1948) gave Ike 53-9%, Adlai 45.1%> and Hallinan 1% of the state vote.

In terms of voting blocs, this seems to be the situation:

P: Farm families have 350,000 of voting age. They seem to be more heavily Republican than in 1948.

P: In spite of Republican efforts to win votes among Americans with backgrounds in Iron Curtain countries (e.g., the Poles), most of these groups show only very minor defections from the Democrats.

P: Among New York's 500,000 Irish Catholics, there seems to be a sizable defection (perhaps 15%) from the Democrats on the softness-to-Communism issue.

P: No important defection is apparent among New York's Italian-Americans, who are-preponderantly Democratic.

P: New York's 2,300,000 Jews, on the Republican side until F.D.R., have been voting 75% Democratic. Early in the campaign, Republicans hoped to make 5% or 10% inroads in this group. They now see no signs that they are making progress.

P: Negroes have been voting about 75% Democratic and are expected to vote the same way this year.

The Picture: Careful analysis of registration figures and other indicators produces some educated guesses at how New York may go:

Brooklyn: 300,000 plurality for Stevenson.

Manhattan: 100,000 for Stevenson.

Bronx: 200,000 for Stevenson.

Queens & Richmond: 100,000 for Ike.

That would give the Democrats a 500,000 lead in the city.

The suburban counties may run:

Suffolk (eastern Long Island) : 60,000 for Ike.

Nassau: 140,000 for Ike.

Westchester: 100,000 for Ike.

That would leave Stevenson facing upstate with a net lead of 200,000, which would probably not be enough if sentiment in that area remained the way it seemed to be two weeks before the election. In other words, it looks this week as if Eisenhower has a shade better than an even chance to carry New York.

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