The Big Secret

Shortly after dawn, seven men in a guarded room in Washington's Department of Agriculture building crowded around a large metal bo., with two heavy padlocks. One man opened the first lock, another the second. Then for almost five hours, they pulled sealed envelopes from the box, tore them open, and carefully tabulated reports from farmers all over the U.S. A few minutes before n, the guards unlocked the doors, admitted Agriculture Secretary Charlie Brannan. Once he had examined the totals, signed his name and marched out again, the doors were thrown open. In came a dozen reporters to get the Crop Reporting Board's latest estimate of the size of the U.S. cotton crop. The estimate: 15.3 million bales.

Up & Down. There was good reason for all the cloak & dagger precautions. Nothing affects the market price of cotton more than the board's prediction. A speculator who had the figure even an hour in advance could make a killing in the market. For example, in October, when the board scaled down its original estimate of a record 17.2 million-bale crop to 16.9 million bales and then cut it to 15.8 million in November, many a farmer was howling mad. Those who had sold at low prices felt cheated by the new estimate, which immediately started cotton prices rising close to the ceiling. Last week's estimate was a full 11% less than the first crop report in August. The Agriculture Department said that instead of a glut, there will scarcely be enough cotton to satisfy the domestic demand.

The Agriculture Department is the first to admit that it needs better crop-reporting. The board makes its guess from reports by its 60 field representatives and 20,000 volunteer farmer-reporters, who send in information on acreage planted, soil moisture, weevils and weather. Before the war, the board sent out roving teams to cover the cotton belt and doublecheck estimates. They were equipped with "crop meters," i.e., gadgets attached to car speedometers which recorded the front footage of cotton planted. But in the past few years, the board's budget has been raised only slightly (to $2.8 million), while the cost of the job has skyrocketed. The board has had to cut down its staff, eliminate most of its checkers.

Show of Hands. This year, frosts, long dry spells and labor shortages had caused farmers to abandon acreage, and that threw the estimate off. Many a farmer had also exaggerated the size of his planting, feeling that if acreage controls were put on again, 1951 might be used as a base year. In Chicago last week, at the annual convention of the American Farm Bureau Federation, cotton farmers complained bitterly. But Georgia Farm Bureau President Harry Wingate quieted them down. He asked how many farmers had sent in the area estimates from, which the Crop Reporting Board got its total. There was a big show of hands. Slightly abashed, most of the delegates agreed that the board was probably doing the best it could, passed a mild resolution asking only that "means to improve the accuracy of the estimates" be looked into.

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