Watching the Ball Game

Businessmen, anxiously scanning the skies for a clue to the economic weather, saw more dark clouds ahead. Industry was still cutting back production; the Federal Reserve Board's production index had dropped in May to 174 (v. 192 a year before) and had gone on down in June to an estimated 170. Unemployment was still rising. In June, with more than one million extra job-seekers out of school and college, it rose to 3,788,000, the highest in seven years.

Some businessmen thought they could already see a few patches of blue through the clouds. If unemployment had risen, so had employment; in June it hit 59,619,000, the highest this year.

Money in the Bank. What businessmen wanted to see most was some sign that the U.S. consumer was ready to start buying again as vigorously as he had done a year ago. By all the statistics, the consumer could well afford to take the rubber band off his roll. But he was still cautious. Last week from Indianapolis, TIME Correspondent Ed Heinke told why.

"I went to see a coal dealer," he wrote, "who was complaining that people weren't yet laying in their winter supply of coal this summer. He gave me the names of some customers and I went around to talk to them.

"The John Boyles have got some money in the bank and $1,000 in bonds in a safe deposit box. 'Last year,' said Boyle, 'I bought my coal early. This year, I'm waiting. Prices are slipping every day and if you don't need something there is no sense buying it.' The Boyles also need new clothes, shoes, furniture for the living room and dining room, lamps, but--'We'll just get by,' says Mrs. Boyle, 'until the prices come down.'

"Next I talked to Mrs. Horn. 'I wanted to buy a $299.95 refrigerator,' she said, 'but it was more than I could pay. I didn't want to buy it on installments. We weathered one depression that caught us paying on two babies, washer, car,, sweeper and furniture. So I said no to the refrigerator salesman and bought a secondhand one for $125.. . . I had a funny feeling that the $299.95 refrigerator would cost $229.95 next fall.'"

Buyers on the Sideline. "Bert Howe, the barber, has a single house that he has cut up into four apartments, and rents three of them. He owns the place, worth about $12,000, and would like to buy some other property. 'I think there's a hell of a depression coming,' he said, tamping tobacco into his pipe. 'Right now I wouldn't buy a chickenhouse. I'm put and I'm staying put. I lived through the other depression and saw what happened.' Mrs. Howe said she would like to have an automatic toaster. 'They cost about $22, I guess,' she said. Her husband added: 'I could buy the damn thing tonight but I'm going to wait until the price goes down.'

"On the way home, I passed the appliance stores, brightly lighted, some of them with television sets in the windows as a lure for the people to come in and look around. But the people stood on the sidewalk and watched the ball game through the window."

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