Prognosis

To a Manhattan dinner honoring Al Smith's memory this week came warm, hopeful words from Winston Churchill on the state of the world. He said:

We have traveled a long way in opinion since I spoke at Fulton, under the auspices of the President, 18 months ago, and many things which were startling or disputable then have now become the foundation of dominant Anglo-American thought.

During all this time the Soviet Government have poured out through their radio, in 26 languages, enormous speeches made on their behalf, an unceasing stream of abuse upon the Western world. And they have accompanied this virulent propaganda by every action which would prevent the world's settling down into a durable peace, or the United Nations Organization playing its part as a great instrument to prevent war. Indeed, the conferences at Lake Success, perhaps prematurely, have become a sounding board at which reproaches and insults are hurled at each other by the greatest states. . . .

False Security. I've been much puzzled to know why it is that the Soviet Government have taken this violently aggressive line. From an external point of view it seems so foolish, and we wonder what is the real motive behind it. I cannot, myself, believe that it is the prelude to war. These 14 men in the Kremlin, who rule with despotic power the vast populations and territories of which they are the masters, are very capable and well informed. If their minds were set on war I cannot believe that they would not lull the easygoing democracies into a false sense of security. Hitler was a master of this, and always before or during some act of aggression he uttered soothing words or made non-aggression pacts. Therefore, while I cannot exclude the danger of war, I do not think the violent abuse which the Soviet Government and their Communist adherents all over the world lavish on all existing forms of civilization is necessarily a sign of danger, or of imminent danger.

It is more likely, in my opinion, being used for internal purposes. If there are only 14 men all eyeing one another, deeply conscious of the enormous population they hold in chains of mind and spirit, enforced by terror, it may well be that they think it pays them and helps them to perpetuate their rule by representing to the otherwise blindfolded masses of the brave and goodhearted Russian people that the Soviet Government stands between them and a repetition of the horrors of invasion which they withstood, when it came, so manfully.

Grounds for Hope. Now, I devoutly hope that this view of mine may prove to be correct. But the United States and the Western democracies of Europe will fail to profit by the hard experiences they have undergone if they did not take every measure of prudent defensive preparation which is open to them. While taking all the necessary steps and above all maintaining a solid front, we should not, however, be hasty in abandoning our hope in the United Nations Organization. It may be that the Soviet Government and their Communist fifth columns in so many countries will, at some moment or other, quit the United Nations Organization. Then there would be what is called two worlds. And we should all be sorry to see that. But if one of these worlds is far more powerful than the other and is equally vigilant, and is also sincerely desirous of maintaining peace, there is no reason why a two-world system should lead to war.

Great wars come when both sides believe they are more or less equal, and when each thinks he has a good chance of victory. No such conditions of equality would be established if the Soviet Government and their Communist devotees were to make a separate organization of their own. Indeed, the two great systems might even begin to be polite with one another and speak again in the measured language of diplomacy.

Therefore, it seems to me, we should not be unduly depressed if the Soviet-Communist forces should decide to part company with the world organization. Certainly we ought not to give away anything which is essential to our security in order to persuade them to linger with us for the purpose of paralyzing the joint harmonious action of three-quarters of mankind.

"To Weld the Democracies." I must now say a word about my own country, and yours. First of all I ask you to pay no attention to the many insulting things which are said about the United States by the Communists and crypto-Communists and fellow travelers in our island. Their interests and their instructions naturally lead them to say everything in their power to make division between us. You should completely ignore their taunts and jeers--for instance, I noticed in the newspaper bitter words from a Mr. Priestley, who gained some acceptance in the war from the fact that we used him for broadcasting purposes. He has no influence. No American should allow himself to be irritated or offended by such diatribe. They do not represent in the slightest degree the feelings of the British nation, or, I may say, of His Majesty's Government.

We are a Socialist Government--you may have heard of that--and I am leader of the Conservative Party in opposition to it--perhaps you have heard of that too. But I can tell you that there is no country in Europe which makes a firmer or more solid front against Soviet and Communist encroachment than Great Britain. There is no doubt whatever that the Government, and the overwhelming mass of the British people, at home and throughout our Commonwealth, if any great issue should arise affecting human freedom, would act with the United States in the same solidarity and fraternal intimacy which has so lately given us victory against the combined dictatorships of Germany, Italy and Japan.

I believe that Britain will rise again with even higher influence in the world than she now exercises. I work for the revival of a united Europe. I am sure that the English-speaking world can weather all the storms that blow. And that above all these, a world instrument, in Al Smith's words, "to weld the democracies together" can be erected which will be all-powerful so long as it is founded on freedom, justice and mercy--and is well armed.

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