Spring Plowing

Said a U.S. War Department political strategist last week:

"There is a lesser possibility of a shooting war today than at any time since 1935 or 1936. The situation in Greece relaxed the day the President made his speech. In fact, the Russians, having wintered in Germany, Austria and Bulgaria, are going home for the spring plowing."

This statement was a bit on the optimistic side, but it seemed to point up an important (though generally disputed) truth: the danger of war has not much to do with good or ill feeling between nations. For example, the chance of war-within-five-years between the U.S. and Russia was probably greatest during the era of good feeling in 1944-45, when the U.S. was making concessions which, if extended as the Russians tried to extend them, would have placed Europe and North China in Soviet hands. If the U.S. had waked up to confront Soviet power of that magnitude, war would have been imminent.

But the era of good feeling ended in 1946, and the Truman Doctrine of 1947 stated a U.S. intention to contain Soviet power within (approximately) its present limits (i.e., within limits which do not make a war with the U.S. an attractive risk for the Russians).

The improvised prospect for peace between The U.S. and Russia also increases the United Nations' chance for survival and growth. All realists at the San Francisco Conference understood this. The Russians stated it most clearly, but the U.S. delegation that helped draft the U.N. Charter was also keenly and unanimously aware that they were placing the fate of U.N. upon the security of the U.S., and not vice versa.

Last week U.S. Delegate Warren Austin at U.N. put this fact (which is implicit in the U.N. Charter) into polite language for some Americans (and all Communists) who are screaming that the Truman Doctrine bypasses U.N. Said Austin: "It is by combining national and international action . . . that the members of the United Nations can advance the cause of collective security." Quoting President Truman, he added: "In helping free and independent nations to maintain their freedom, the U.S. will be giving effect to ... the Charter. . . ."

This kind of support was considerably more important to U.N.'s future than Russian abuse of the veto. (Last week the U.S.S.R. cast its tenth veto, this time to shield satellite Albania from blame for blowing up two British destroyers.)

The stronger U.S. policy had helped the Foreign Ministers Conference, too. The Moscow sessions were still bumping along (see below), but the old tension was gone. Everyone knew that the U.S. would not make major concessions which would tend to equalize Soviet and U.S. strength--because in such equalization lay the danger of war.

On more obscure fronts, the prospect was not so bright. The Russians might get the atomic bomb (a German scientist escaped from Russia last week said they would soon have it). If equalization took place in this way, Washington would probably learn about it from Geiger counters capable of "hearing" radioactive particles thousands of miles away. When those Geigers begin to click, war will be nearer.

No Geiger counters record the gains of the Communist parties which hope to equalize the balance between the West and Russia by controlling or confusing anti-Communist countries. Last week, when the Italian Communists in a brilliant maneuver supported the Vatican (see FOREIGN NEWS), the world, if it looked closely, could see some Soviet spring plowing for a new sowing of dragon's teeth.

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