Progress & Problems

All along the U.S. production line the news was good:

P:CJ The Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index for July was estimated at 172 or 173, two or three points above June's postwar peak.

P:The steel industry, despite a shortage of scrap, had edged production up to 90.5% of capacity.

P:Detroit's automakers last week set a postwar record with 80,439 cars and trucks; this week they expected to do better by at least 5,000.

The Civilian Production Administration, adding up spot checks it had made, found that in June:

P: Washing machine shipments totaled 193,000 units, 4% above May, 22% above the 1940-41 monthly average.

P:Radio production reached an estimated 1,378,000 sets, 16% above May, 25% more than 1940-41.

P: Refrigerators and vacuum cleaners were 7% above May, but still below 1940-41.

P:Electric range production jumped 48% over May; gas ranges moved up slightly. Both, stood substantially above prewar levels.

P: Cotton broad-woven fabrics were turned out at an average weekly rate of 182.5 million yards, chalking up a new record for 1946.

But there was trouble ahead. A shortage in freight cars was already pinching production. Last week Carnegie-Illinois Steel Corp. had to close down six open-hearth furnaces; the Carnegie plant at Gary, Ind. had 14,000 tons of finished steel waiting to be shipped. Reason for the car shortage: 1) the roads have 33,000 fewer cars than last year and, afraid of overbuying, have not placed enough orders to fill the gap; 2) freight car builders, hobbled by the steel strike, turned out only a piddling 14,282 cars in the first half of 1946. With steel mills cutting production for lack of cars and car builders cutting production for lack of steel, a vicious circle was being completed.

In prospect was a more serious shortage, one that the U.S. thought ended with the war--a shortage in manpower. With an estimated 56,740,000 at work, the U.S. already has the full employment that many an economist thought would take years to reach. And still there were manpower shortages everywhere.

There was little hope that Army discharges, now past their peak, would supply the needed men. Nor would the pool of unemployed; it was already down to 2,000,000. The hard fact was that the U.S. could not boost production much higher if it needed many more hands to do it. But it could if those at work did a better job. The hope now was for increased labor efficiency, like post-War I's.

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