A Balanced Budget?

As the U.S. Treasury totted up receipts for February, it was pleasantly surprised. For the first time in four years, the U.S. had taken in more in a month than it had spent, by a round $168,000,000. Those who have been watching the way federal spending has dropped, and tax payments stayed up, guessed that the U.S. may get an even bigger surprise. The surprise: the federal budget may be balanced in the fiscal year starting July 1.

Besides the statistical swallow that February brought, there were enough others to promise spring. Since last July, the Treasury has collected an average of $3,400,000,000 a month in taxes, chiefly because payrolls and business activity have held up far better than anyone expected. In February, the Treasury took in $3,678,000,000, not far below February last year when war production was at its peak.

Currently, the U.S. is collecting taxes at the rate of $44 billion a year. No one expects this to continue. Nevertheless, these high receipts made the Administration's estimate that only $31 billion would be collected in the next fiscal year seem low. It looked as if it had underestimated its take, just as it had vastly overestimated unemployment (it is only one-third of the estimate of 6,000,000).

At the present rate, the Treasury will collect some $2.5 billion more this year than it had expected. Moreover, most of the extra cash will come in from now on. If the Treasury is as far off in its financial guesses for the next fiscal year, then the expected deficit of $4.3 billion would be wiped out; the budget of $35.8 billion would be in balance.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.