Light in the East

For the past century, divided China has been a power vacuum into which the great nations rushed toward conflict. For the past decade Japan has filled more & more of that vacuum.

When Japan collapsed, an appalling prospect unfolded: China was still weak, and divided almost to the point of allout civil war; Russia and the U.S. might take sides, either in actual combat or in the division of China into a Russian-dominated north and a U.S.-protected south.

But at the very hour--about midnight Aug. 13--when the Japanese warlords were bowing to Hirohito's surrender decision, Joseph Stalin moved toward a new era in east Asian politics. Abruptly leaving a Moscow banquet for General Eisenhower, Stalin hurried to the final conference on a 30-year Sino-Russian pact.

Next day he signed a treaty which might be no less historic than the Japanese surrender itself. When the terms were published this week, it was clear that China's great statesman, T. V. Soong, had achieved China's greatest chance in modern times for peace, progress, and perhaps even prosperity.

What Russia Gets. When the treaty was signed, Russian troops were pouring across Manchuria (which has more heavy industry than all the rest of China). Chinese Communist bands were moving to occupy key cities. Chungking, bowing to reality, made concessions.

China agreed to give up her "sovereignty" of Outer Mongolia (a poor land with less than 1,000,000 inhabitants) where Chinese rule has been shaky for 50 years, and purely nominal since 1924 when Outer Mongolia came under the Soviet thumb.

Port Arthur will become a Russian naval base--but the Chinese navy, when there is one, will have access to it; civil administration of the port will be Chinese. Russia gets the use of another port, Dairen, on equal terms with China; the harbor master will be a Russian.

The treaty states that the Dairen grant by China is made "in view of the fact that the treaty of friendship and alliance has been concluded between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Chinese Republic, also of the fact that the U.S.S.R. has guaranteed respect for Chinese sovereignty of the three eastern provinces as an inseparable part of China. . . ."

China and Russia will be co-owners of the two Manchurian railroads--the Chinese Eastern and the South Manchurian, both built by Russia. (Stalin remarked to Soong: "We haven't had much use of them." Soong's reply: "That wasn't our fault; we didn't guarantee you against the Japs.") Russian soldiers may not use the railroads except to fight Japan. Railway guards will be exclusively Chinese.

Further, it looked as if Russia would get Japan's half of Sakhalin Island and the Kuril Islands enclosing Russia's Okhotsk Sea. Russia's position in east Asia would return to about where it was in 1904 before the Russo-Japanese war. Stalin's imperialism had redressed the Tsars' imperial ineptitude.

What China Gets. In his bargaining with Stalin, China's Soong of course had few real military chips to put on the table. But on major issues he did have U.S. support. When Soong talked tough, as he often did in the seven all-night conferences, Russia knew that Soong was not bluffing. Stalin, who likes straight talk, liked Soong.

To dinners in honor of Soong and Foreign Minister Wang Shih-chieh, Stalin--as if to emphasize the new "line" on China --invited a wider representation of Soviet political leaders than have attended recent Moscow banquets for other foreign dignitaries. At one dinner, Stalin proposed an awkward toast: he hoped that if Chinese unity was not attained under Chiang Kaishek, it would come under Chiang's son, Ching-kuo, who was present. Soong rose quickly to refute any dynastic implications of Stalin's remark. At another dinner Uncle Joe asked his guests to give Chiang this avuncular advice: if China would be free and strong, it must build a strong army.

In the end, Russia promised China moral, material and military aid. More tangibly, Russia recognized the sovereignty of the Chinese National Government over all of China, including Manchuria. That meant Russian aid to China would be sent only to the recognized National Government.

For the present, this kicked the props out from under the Chinese Communists (see FOREIGN NEWS). Their strength always lay in the expectation that Moscow would back them in a crisis. Doubtless, Stalin would want to see the Chinese Communist Party remain alive and strong as a check to the Chinese National Government. But his concessions made it clear to every Chinese that he did not want to risk disorder along his 5,000 miles of China border (much less conflict with the U.S.).

Of special importance to the Chinese was the fact that soon there might not be a foreign soldier on China's soil. Stalin boggled at a treaty clause setting a date for Soviet evacuation of Manchuria, but agreed verbally to have all troops out in three months.

Soong's treaty leaves China with every foot of territory she ever claimed, except British Hong Kong, British-influenced Tibet, Russian-dominated Outer Mongolia and Port Arthur, and Portuguese Macao. In a speech to the Supreme National Defense Council, Chiang Kai-shek prepared Chinese public opinion for the treaty by defending the changes as consistent with Kuomintang principles.

On the question of Hong Kong, Chiang obviously did not share the excitement of the world press. He said that the British would receive the Japanese surrender there. The Hong Kong issue would be settled later through diplomacy.

Britain, no longer a great power in east Asia, would have a better chance of orderly adjustment of her Far Eastern position if the area was no longer in turmoil. In London officials said privately they would negotiate on Hong Kong.

What the World Gets. China would need help--probably billions from the U.S.--over the next decades. It still had no certainties, only a great chance. But at last there was light in the East. The driving force of Asiatic nationalism and anti-colonialism is one of the strongest political factors in the world today. It could disrupt any system of peace, defy over the long run any coercion from the West. If China can now proceed to establishment of a fully independent national state, the chances of major east-west conflict would be cut to a fraction.

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