Things to Come

Fred Vinson's 8,000-word report to President Truman was titled: "The War--Phase Two." Said Vinson: "The paramount command is: win the war! Victory over Japan comes ahead of every other consideration.'' Then he drew a picture of what U.S. civilians may expect as America's full weight is thrown to the west:

Food. Rationing must continue. Total food supplies are expected to be 5 to 10% less than last year; total requirements, 5 to 10% greater. Meat is the most serious shortage, sugar next; oils, butter and other fats will be scarce.

Housing. Home-building is under way on a limited scale only where manpower and materials can be spared; in the next twelve months, at least 250,000 homes and apartments are expected to be built; essential repairs can be made now.

Transportation. The shift to the Pacific will make the load on railroads heavier. Further curtailment of passenger service may be necessary. Airplane priorities must be continued.

Automobiles. A few cars will be made in the next six to nine months, but it will be three years before pent-up civilian demand can be met. The shortage in tires, batteries continues.

Gasoline. Daily supply for civilians will go up 8 to 16%--but this means only moderate relief for A-card holders and commercial-card holders. B-card holders "may" get some help.

Home Equipment. Some appliances will be ready within a year; washing machines, refrigerators will go into production first. Production of electric irons, stoves, etc., will be stepped up.

Clothing. More low-priced items will be made. There will be no nylon or silk stockings until well after final victory, and shoes will still be rationed.

To get the reconversion wheels turning, Fred Vinson's advice to labor and industry was: get going with as little Government interference as possible. There were still price, wage and production controls to be faced, and for a long time there would still be such controls.

But on the production side, WPB last week revoked 73 orders prohibiting or limiting the manufacture of civilian products (most of them had to do with "hard goods" for the manufacture of small civilian items). Said WPB Chairman Krug: "The WPB wants and encourages the small-business man to get going as fast as he can."

On the pricing side, OPAdministrator Bowles said that most peacetime goods returning to the market must be sold at 1942 retail levels.

On the wage side, WLB told labor and industry to get together and write new, logical wage scales, go ahead with them, file them for approval later. Said WLB Chairman Taylor: "The board, in a sense, has put its chips on collective bargaining."

The Goal. On one other front the Congress stepped in. House and Senate leaders were set to pass an interim tax bill to ease the reconversion job (see BUSINESS).

As the governmental gears began to grind, Fred Vinson summed up his view of the country's problem: "We've got to have higher prices for materials than we had before the war. We've got to have higher wages. And we've got to have higher profits. We've got a debt that will reach $300 billion after the war, and our national income has got to be much higher than before the war. In my opinion, higher prices for raw materials, higher wages, and higher profits do not necessarily mean higher prices for the individual consumer." The U.S. had started the toughest economic job in its history.

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