Estimate of the Situation

On Dec. 27 TIME War Correspondent James Shepley left Supreme Allied headquarters in France, flew to New York. Within the bounds of security, this is his report on the German counter offensive.

Rundstedt set up his attack like a chessmaster. Good guesswork or good forecasting told him the Rhine Valley would be covered with weather the first two weeks of December. Under such a blanket he moved divisions with a minimum chance of Allied air observation. His G-2 never functioned better.

The four U.S. armies facing him were on the offensive and their deployment obviously was offensive. General Eisen hower could not possibly have held an impregnable line from the North Sea to Strasbourg and at the same time mobilized sufficient strength to attack the Siegfried Line and the inner defenses of the Rhine Valley.

From the Aachen salient to the Third Army's drive into Germany at Saarlautern, the U.S. lines were thinly held by divisions resting from combat. At the last minute, when ground reconnaissance finally picked up traces of a German concentration, the 101st Airborne Division was moved to Bastogne to strengthen the line along the German-Luxembourg frontier.

The night of Dec. 1.5 Rundstedt's guns began to hammer with deadly precision at the U.S. positions on the Belgium-Luxembourg front. His attack was swift and sure. Spearheaded by the 1st SS Panzer--the Adolf Hitler Division--his point rammed two U.S. divisions on the northern flank, overran a third like a tidal wave.

For this desperate push Rundstedt threw away the rule book. There were reports that hundreds of U.S. prisoners were stripped and shot for their clothing and identification tags. In any event the leading elements of the German columns were in many cases American jeeps loaded with German troops in U.S. uniforms and equipment complete to dog tags. German tanks and trucks were marked with American stars. The deception was highly successful and forced U.S. Military Police to make time-consuming checks of all vehicles using the roads in northern France and Belgium. American slang and American lore became the one sure test to pass an MP.

For the first three days of the breakthrough the weather was still a German ally. Then it deserted Rundstedt. From the fourth day until last week the Ninth Air Force had some clear hours every day to press home its attack on German motor columns and supply trains.

That was Rundstedt's first upset. The second was the heroic refusal of the 101st Airborne to be overrun at Bastogne. The Americans' northern peg held firm when a regiment of one of the overrun divisions refused to give ground and enabled First Army divisions to the north to wheel in on that flank.

If it had missed the concentration of Rundstedt's power, American intelligence was quick to recover. By the end of the second day 17 German divisions had been identified in the attack.

General Eisenhower started his counterattacks in motion within a few hours. He ordered Patton to attack in force from the south toward Bastogne and against the German flank in Luxembourg. Because of disrupted communication lines he switched command of the U.S. First and Ninth Armies from General Bradley's headquarters to the Twenty First Army Group commanded by Field Marshal Montgomery. Monty was to meet the German spearhead in the west and counterattack toward Patton from the north with British and U.S. divisions.

Rundstedt's plan by now was clear. He had made a historic throw of the dice and his prize was time. If successful in disrupting the Allies' armies, he could win six months--six months to scrape up combat manpower, while German scientists and technicians hurried to develop their new V-weapons.

U.S. commanders in Europe do not underestimate the final, desperate German struggle for survival. The fighting this week and next week is critical. German momentum is spending but not completely spent. If the Allied counterattacks are successful, Rundstedt may lose much or all of the last German reserves in the west. But in recent months all Germany has grown as fierce and fanatical in its losing struggle as the banzai-charging Japanese infantry.

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