Less & Less

"For a nation with about half of the known crude-oil reserves of the world and two thirds of the total production, it seems almost incredible to the layman that any shortage [of gasoline] can exist."

Thus chunky, shaggy-headed Harry Carothers Wiess, president of Humble Oil & Refining Co., nutshelled the current confusion over oil. Just as neatly, oil-wise Mr. Wiess, whose company (a Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey subsidiary) is one of the U.S.'s biggest oil producers, last week set forth figures to drive home to the layman a still-incredible fact : the pinch in oil may be just beginning.

Writing in the September issue of Mining and Metallurgy, Humble's president struck a comprehensive, up-to-date balance sheet on oil. Crude requirements from domestic sources, now about 4,150,000 bbl.* daily, will reach an alltime peak of 4,400,000 bbl. in '44, which exceeds estimates of the maximum amount the U.S. can produce efficiently by 130,000 bbl. a day. This is an increase in daily demand of 525,000 bbl. in three years.

Book Balancing. Gasoline rationing is saving 500,000 bbl. of gasoline daily. Theoretically this means a saving of 1,250,000 bbl. of crude a day, and the U.S. would seem to have more than balanced its oil books. Actually, Humble's president finds that the books are far out of balance. His reason: "Drastic changes have occurred in refinery operations in order to supply aviation gasoline, materials for the synthetic-rubber program and other war products. . . . The yield of motor gasoline has been reduced over 500,000 bbl. daily."

Thus, says Wiess, what the U.S. is saving by gasoline rationing is only enough to balance the decrease in gasoline production, leaving no fat to absorb the tremendous increase in overall demand. Can the U.S. boost production to meet this?

Said Wiess: "The U.S. has reached or is rapidly approaching the point where it is, or will be, producing crude oil at the maximum efficient rate."

Alternatives. To make up the deficit, cautious Mr. Wiess has no painless cureall, only alternatives. They are: 1) stimulate the drilling of oil wells and exploration for new fields by raising crude-oil prices (or lowering taxes); 2) increase oil imports; 3) reduce civilian consumption by more drastic rationing.

To date, as oilmen well know, OPA has steadfastly refused to permit an increase in oil prices. At present oil imports from South America are increasing, but will not ease the civilian gasoline pinch because: 1) war requirements will have to be met first; 2) South America has no excess refinery capacity now to take the strain off overloaded U.S. refineries; 3) the U.S. expects to use South American oil to fuel any large-scale offensive in the Pacific because production in California, now fueling the Pacific operations, cannot be increased sufficiently to supply a big push.

To those gloomy facts & figures, Petroleum Administrator for War Harold L. Ickes last week added his own black-bordered warning: The armed forces are now using 600,000 bbl. of gasoline of all types daily, will up their requirements next year to 37 1/2% of all gasoline produced east of the Rockies.

His blunt conclusion: If the U.S. continues "in the direction we are traveling now," it will run out of gasoline.

*Standard oil barrel holds 42 gallons.

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