Why Victory Waits

To a rendezvous in the Indian Ocean somewhere off Madagascar went Germany's thin-lipped Vice Admiral Karl Doenitz and Japan's pudgy Admiral Osami Nagano. What the honorable Doenitz said to the honorable Nagano was not revealed by the Swedish paper which reported the meeting last week. But--if they met--a good guess was that they discussed the highly effective German submarine campaign--a defensive campaign which cannot win the war for Hitler, but can indefinitely delay an Allied victory.

How much havoc it has wrought, neither Washington nor London cares to admit. The German Admiralty has claimed that German submarines, aircraft and surface raiders sank just under 9,000,000 tons of Allied shipping in 1942. The reputable Christian Science Monitor declared that Allied, sinkings are now at the rate of 1,000,000 tons a month. In 1942, according to Mr. Roosevelt, U.S. shipyards produced 8,090,800 tons.*

Coldly calculating U.S. insurance underwriters view the situation "with increasing pessimism." Rates quoted for cargoes tell their own eloquent story: for the transatlantic passage to west coast British ports, 10%; for passage to India via the Cape of Good Hope, 20%. In contrast are rates on shipping from the West Coast to Hawaii, where sinkings have been rare: 1 1/2%. British civilians last week were warned to expect short rations, prepare themselves for a grim year.

The Burden. Plainly the United Nations are barely holding their own on the sea front--if they are not indeed losing way. According to all signs, the strength of Germany's undersea fleet is increasing. Despite Germany's need of overland transport facilities, submarine building still holds No. 1 priority. Allied bombers, soaring over the great submarine base at Lorient, have been none too effective.

Germany's total sub fleet probably numbers 400, enabling her to keep 100 or more at sea all the time. The last announced convoy to land in Britain had to fight off 35 separate attacks. Until the United Nations knock out or otherwise neutralize that sub fleet, victory on land in this global war will be incalculably remote. The tide did not turn in World War I until Germany's U-boats were beaten and the ocean supply lines cleared. The ocean supply lines are even more vital to victory in World War II.

The shortest haul to any of the Allied battlefronts is 1,200 miles, the longest 14,000 miles. Every new front opened--in New Guinea, the Solomons, North Africa--is a strategic gain for the Allies, but it also imposes an additional drain on available shipping. The invasion of North Africa, and supply for the Allies after they were established in that theater, have required some 1,000 merchant voyages to date (the number of ships, each making several trips, may be considerably less).

The bombing of Europe depends on the supply of high-octane aviation gasoline, every gallon of which must be carried to Britain in convoyed tankers. Russia's still-open northern Atlantic route (TIME, Jan. 18) is also a heavy burden.

Though Pacific merchant sinkings have been minuscule, Atlantic sinkings have seriously affected South Pacific operations, because every ship destroyed has meant one less in the Allies' shipping pool.

The Hope. The situation is not hopeless. Every Navy man in Washington knows the solution: convoys plus air cover. If every Allied cargo carrier is convoyed, most naval experts agree the U-boat can be licked. Submarines have abandoned areas where heavy convoys operate, especially when coastal air patrols function with the naval escorts.

The great embarrassment is shortage of escort ships--due, according to Columnist Walter Lippmann, to "lack of foresight in the Navy Department." Other causes have contributed to the shortage, notably the urgent construction of other types for military purposes. The great dispute in Washington last week was whether to cut the synthetic rubber program in order to step up production of escort vessels and other material needed in the anti-submarine campaign.

*British shipbuilders turned out perhaps 2,000,000 tons.

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