Monday, Jan. 12, 1942

Things to Come

Out of the welter of year-end predictions for the awful year-to-come, some seemed likelier than others:

> To spend 50% of the national income for war will entail a cut in nonwar manufacturing (not services) to perhaps 25% of "normal." To cut that much will mean civilian rationing in more things than rubber and autos. Next: wool, canned foods, sugar.

> As war costs mount, defense-bond sales to the U.S. citizen will become compulsory--unless he voluntarily buys three to four times the $528,000,000 he did last month.

> U.S. finance companies will have a bad year--not because of Government regulations, but because there will be nothing much for them to finance.

> There will be serious unemployment in the midst of serious labor shortages. More women will work, especially with their hands. Worst unemployment victim will be the white-collar worker. Perhaps 7,000,000 of the 45,000,000 workers now in nonwar industry will be producing for war by year's end.

> A few nonwar businesses will be lucky in 1942: the movies (using few scarce materials, catering to re-employed millions); bicycles (see p. 66); distillers (who will have a seller's market for whatever they can produce over and above war alcohol production); porcelain enamelware (most likely substitute for many scarce metals in civilian hard goods).

> War producers who don't step up production fast will get new managements that will--if necessary by Government commandeering.

> Firmest prediction of all was made by U.S. rail shippers, whose National Association of Shippers Advisory Boards last week told the railroads how many cars they expect to load in the next three months. The number: 6,054,328 cars, 8.1% more than in 1941's first quarter. This means the greatest ton-mile movement in railroad history. (S.A.B. forecasts have been accurate within less than 1% of actual loadings for the past two years.) Biggest increase over 1941 will be shown by grain loadings, especially in the Northwest (see map). Truck and auto loadings (estimated for January only) will be down 69%.

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