Straws

Arguments last week were really loud; few Americans were left anywhere who were so short of red corpuscles that they could not passionately take sides in the campaign. On each side partisans could find straws to show which way the wind blew:

>> Willkie money flooded into Wall Street, forced betting odds down from 12-to-5 on Roosevelt to 8-to-5, 3-to-2, 7-to-5.

>> New York Daily News pollsters showed the Empire State was evidently a tossup, with Willkie running far ahead of Landon, to shade Roosevelt early this week.

>> Pollster Emil Hurja, Pathfinder publisher, and a backer of Vice President Garner's anti-Third Term campaign, told Willkie boosters that Candidate Willkie would be elected, possibly by a landslide, maybe by a majority of 5,000,000 to 8,000,000 votes. Observers held two legitimate doubts: 1) Mr. Hurja's forecasting reputation was based on his 1932 and 1936 forecasts, when he sat at James A. Farley's right hand, with all the Democratic Party's professionals in the field as his reporters. Even then his 1936 forecast was very conservative, far below the final results (Hurja said 376 electoral votes for Roosevelt; result: 523). Mr. Hurja afterwards left the New Deal, lost his power to check with precinct committeemen. 2) Mr. Hurja, as a sideline, owns the Edward J. Wall poll, which last week showed Roosevelt ahead in popular vote, 55%-to-45%.

>> George Gallup (Institute of Public Opinion) last week reported a 1% increase in Willkie's popular vote (to 45%); an increase of 85 in electoral votes (from 32 to 117); a gain of five States (to 11).

>> Nearly all Midwest polls--Chicago Tribune, Columbus Dispatch, Scripps-Howard's Ohio poll, etc.--showed sharp Willkie gains.

>> Reuter's, English news agency, polled its correspondents all over the U. S., found guesses added up: Roosevelt, 34 States, 366 electoral votes; Willkie, 14 States, 165 electoral votes. Deciding factor: the war.

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