Figures

Last week, while the R.A.F.'s flying cavalry patrols were ranging as far east as Poland on night reconnaissance flights, Air Secretary Sir Kingsley Wood went to the House of Commons for approval of an "unprecedented" budget estimate for the Air Ministry, promptly got what he asked for by way of a -L-100 token appropriation.

Outwardly enthusiastic was Britain's Air Secretary as he solemnly announced that Allied production of war planes was now greater than Germany's, that output of the R.A.F.'s snappy first-line pursuit jobs --the Supermarine Spitfire and Hawker Hurricane -- had been doubled in the past six months, while production of heavy bombers had increased 50%.

This optimism did not check with the 55-45 odds on Germany to win advanced by such gloomy U. S. wiseacres as Ambassador to the Court of St. James's Joseph Kennedy. Above all it did not check with the most reliable figures available from neutral sources friendly to the Allies. These (incidentally showing the U. S. well behind not only the belligerents but Italy and Russia as well) showed that Germany's superiority in air equipment was likely to grow for some months.

For beyond showing that Germany has a heavy superiority over the Allies in air force's prime striking weapon -- bombardment (see table)-- the figures, well thought cf in Washington, also showed that she was far ahead of them in her productive rate. Worse than that was the estimate of the future: that by September Germany's rate of airplane production will have been so stepped up that she will be able to duplicate her present air force every four months.

According to the Washington reckoning Germany is turning out 2,300 planes a month -- 43% more than the combined out put of France and Britain. Britain, despite stories of increased production, despite the fighting talk of Sir Kingsley Wood, fell from a rate of 1,200 a month in December to 800 in January, may be presumed to have recovered to the 1,200 rate by now.

And France, whose production was down to 40 a month early in 1939 while her factories were recovering from socialization under the Popular Front, has never been able to top 400 a month. Total maximum production for the Allies: 1,600 a month.

For any hope of matching Germany plane-for-plane, the Allies must rely most heavily on their own plants. Even when they lay down their long-delayed order in the U. S. for $1,000,000,000 in planes--6,000 bombers, 2,000 other types--they can scarcely hope to have all delivered before 1942. But Germany, stepping up production, is aiming at a monthly output of 6,000 by September.

From last week's "most authoritative" figures it was plainer than ever that Air Marshal Goring's Air Force was built for one purpose: an assault on the Allies with emphasis on heavy bombardment. The higher percentage of pursuit in the Allied forces illustrated the fact that France and Britain have been building a defensive force to fight off Germany's bombers, have lagged on the weapons the Allies need to strike a heavy counterblow.

Air force doctrine (untried in modern war) says that a pilot may wear out as many as three planes. But pilots eventually wear out too. The number of Ger man training planes is proof that onetime Pursuit Pilot Goring has not forgotten this lesson. Germany's training equipment is about 25% greater than that of the Allies, and it is a safe guess that it is being used to turn out replacements at a pro portionate rate for the oil-smeared, fire-bitten men who will go down if the air war is begun on a full-dress scale.

In development of high-performance pursuit types, Sir Kingsley could, and did, justifiably take pride -- a pride which he showed last week in the somewhat extravagant statement that he would pit a hun dred Spitfires or Hurricanes against a much larger number of German counterparts, which would mean Messerschmitt Me. 109s, or Heinkel He. 1125. For Hurricanes and Spitfires have been vastly improved in performance (principally by replacement of antiquated wooden propellers by American-type, constant-speed metal props). And the Spitfire, traditionally nimble in dogfight, has been stepped up to close to 400 miles an hour in top speed, may well be the fanciest single-engined pursuit ship in Europe.

Strictly defensive in strategy, and short on range, neither Hurricane nor Spitfire can be used as fighter escorts on long-range reconnaissance or bombing missions, and neither Britain nor France has brought out an escort fighter like the U. S.'s new twin-engine, high-speed, long-range Lockheed P-38. Germany has: the cannon-carrying Messerschmitt Me. 110, a twin-engine speedster that will be used to keep the Spitfires and Hurricanes, the French Moranes and American Curtisses off the backs of busy bombers. Last week in the House of Commons, when Laborite Hugh Dalton observed that Britain had no counterpart of the Me. no, there was no one there to contradict him.

And until Britain develops an escort fighter it will have to rely for that work on a poor makeshift--light bombers, armed to do a job they were never built to do.

In bombers Britain's (and the Allies') best bet is the big, rugged Vickers Wellington, a husky, reliable weight carrier with a top speed of 265 m. p. h., and the lighter Bristol Blenheim (about comparable in size to a Lockheed 12) with a maximum of 295. But both need fighter escorts, are not to be compared in speed with the new German Junkers Ju. 88K which has a top of 330 m. p. h., can show its heels to pursuit with any kind of start. To Ju. 88K, and the somewhat slower Heinkels and Dorniers, Britain has several answers, now in production: the light Bristol Beaufort, with a top around 310 m. p. h., the Handley Page Hereford (a super-powered version of the service Hampden) and many others.

France, coming gradually to life, is stepping up the performance of its Amiot 370, its Bloch 131, its Liore-&-Olivier Le O-45, by new design. Given time the Allies may yet overhaul Germany, may even out foot her if the hard-pressed Nazis run out of their hoard of raw materials: copper, aluminum, etc. But last week, with spring flying weather opening up, the gloomy looked at Joe Kennedy's odds and wondered.

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