Law of Averages

In Cam-Ranh Bay off the coast of Indo-China, French warships were maneuvering one bright morning last week. The submarines Phenix and L'Espoir submerged to make a sham attack on the flagship of the Far Eastern Fleet, the cruiser Lamotte-Picquet. After a half-hour L'Espoir knifed to the surface, but no one saw the Phenix, and probably no one ever will. For a day and a half planes and warships crisscrossed the sea, searching in vain for the crippled vessel. And then the Ministry of the Navy belatedly informed the families of the crew and the world: "The submarine Phenix has been missing for 36 hours; all hope is lost." For the third time within a month a big modern submarine of a democratic navy had made a routine dive and somehow settled to the bottom. The U. S. S. Squalus lost 26 men, the British submarine Thetis, 99. The Phenix'?, toll was 71.

The hills on the coast of Indo-China drop steeply to the sea, continue their sharp decline beneath the surface, so that the water where the Phenix disappeared is 365 to 375 feet deep. Built to stand pressures down to 330 feet, the hull of the submarine probably collapsed when it plunged to the bottom. Persistent oil slicks on the surface confirmed this theory. France, which possesses no escape bells of the type used in the Squalus rescue, had just opened negotiations with the U. S. for the purchase of four, but even if one had been available it would have been useless.

The Naval Ministry scoffed at suggestions that the loss of the Phenix was something more than an accident. French newspapers were not prepared to dismiss the possibility of sabotage so lightly, asked: "Can this be the law of averages--that three democracies lose three submarines in less than a month?" Editorialized the Communist newspaper L'Humanite: "This commands suspicion."

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