Prophets

As is its longtime custom during the first week of every year, the Press last week printed a batch of 1935 prophecies from U. S. Businessmen. Newsreaders with memories long enough to recall similar predictions made on New Year's Day 1930 or 1931 or 1932 scanned last week's output with thoughtful amusement.

'The peak of the Depression passed 30 days ago," said James Augustine Farrell of U. S. Steel Corp. in January 1931. Same week Owen D. Young declared that the "dead centre" of Depression had come & gone.

Last week there were 5,000,000 heads-of-families on the dole.

In 1931 Secretary of Commerce Robert Patterson Lament declared: ". . . The banks of the country generally are in a strong position."

On Jan. 1, 1931 there were 22,092 banks.

Last week there were 6,554 fewer.

In 1930 President Edward Eugene Loomis of Lehigh Valley R. R. said: ''The high plane of railroad performance today is one of the most important factors contributing to the strong position in which business finds itself. . . ."

Today one-fifth of all the railroad mileage in the U. S. is in receivership. To keep afloat, railroads have borrowed nearly half a billion dollars from the U. S. Government.

In 1931 Chairman Alexander Legge of the Federal Farm Board predicted: "There is no further general decline in commodity prices in sight."

In 1931 wheat dropped to its lowest price (45-c- per bu.) on any primary world market in 300 years.

In 1930 President John Marcus Davis of Delaware, Lackawanna & Western Ry. declared: "Few if any people will stop eating, wearing clothes, postpone getting married or change their habits, just because the stock market took a tumble. . . ."

The following year 20,160 people jumped out of windows, shot themselves, turned on the gas, or swigged poison--highest suicide rate recorded since 1912.

Last week's crop of prophecies was the shortest in years. Five years of defeat, frustration and ridicule had taught businessmen to avoid mouth-filling generalities, to stick to harmless forecasts about their own industries. Samples:

"The outlook for the steel industry is reasonably favorable."--Tom Girdler of Republic Steel.

"We look forward to continued improvement."--Gerard Swope of General Electric.

"Conditions in 1935 should be somewhat better."--Alfred P. Sloan of General Motors.

This time there was justification for an undercurrent of hope: electric power production and steel ingot production were up, automobile prospects were rosy (see p. 62). But the New York Times, which has practically ceased gathering New Year forecasts from businessmen, commented: ''Never before within the memory of Wall Street veterans have prophetic efforts been so lightly regarded."

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