Indices

The so-called barometers of business do not register every day. Last week four of them, including several of the most important, made their mid-summer reports, caused businessmen 1) to smile. 2) to nod their heads sagely, 3; to raise their eyebrows in mild surprise, 4) to scratch their heads in serious thought.

Report that caused the smile was an official calculation that in July pollution of Manhattan atmosphere was 1.59 tons per cubic mile, compared to 1.21 tons in July 1932, 1.38 tons in July 1931, 3.82 tons in July 1930. Many a shrewd commuter has privately maintained that he got his best check on current business conditions by counting smoking v. smokeless factory chimneys from his train window.

Report that caused businessmen to nod sagely was the backlog of unfilled orders of U. S. Steel Corp. Optimists have argued that under the New Deal steel business would continue its steady upswing without the usual midsummer tendency to slacken. Estimates of capacity of steel operations have for three weeks been hinting that steel would ease oft. U. S. Steel's unfilled orders confirmed the fact: at 2,020,000 tons they were off 86,000 tons from the month before, a normal seasonal decline.

Report that caught businessmen somewhat unprepared was the Government estimate of this year's grain crops. For at least two months they have been anticipating a short wheat crop, expected the new wheat crop estimate to be even smaller than a month ago. Instead the estimate was a trifle larger and wheat prices promptly sank. Equally unanticipated were the estimates that corn and oats crops would be considerably smaller than anticipated, a corn crop next to the smallest of any since 1901. Few grain traders could recall any year when wheat, corn and oats crops had all been so short. Estimates (in millions of bushels):

Estimated Yield Average Yield

1933 1926-30

Wheat 500 851

Corn 2,273 2,630

Oats 667 1,190

Barley 158 264

Rye 23.1 41.6

Report that gave businessmen food for thought was the Government's estimate of the cotton crop. The 1932 crop amounted to 13,000,000 bales raised on 36,000,000 acres of cotton land. This year farmers planted some 40,00,00 acres but the Administration offered them money to plow under more than 10,00,000 acres of planted cotton, reducing the acreage 27% to 29,700,00 acres. On this account cotton men guessed that the 1933 crop would be 10,500,000 or 11,000,000 bales. Great was their shock to see the Government's estimate for a crop of 12,314,000 bales after deducting 4,247,000 bales for the area plowed under. The Government is to pay cotton farmers (and the consumer will pay the Government through processing taxes), between $125,00,00 and $150,000,000 for turning under one-quarter of the crop. Yet due to good growing conditions, to the laziness of 1933 boll weevils and to the large acreage planted by the farmers the net reduction in the crop is estimated at less than 700,000 bales or about 5%.

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