Straightaway

Last week's elections cleared the way for next year's presidential campaign. Twelve solid months of national politics stretched ahead without break or turn. Down the perspective of time stood the following major political events in sequence: i) meetings of the two national committees this winter to select next year's convention cities;-- 2) preferential primaries in 20 States, beginning early next spring to instruct delegations to national conventions for this or that presidential candidate; 3) covert and continuous scrambles in all States to control convention delegations; 4) a Republican national convention in mid-June at which Herbert Clark Hoover will almost certainly be renominated for the Presidency and John Doe for the Vice-Presidency; 5) a Democratic national convention a week later at which Richard Roe will be nominated for the Presidency and William Blank for the Vice-Presidency; 6) the steady, if somewhat reduced, flow of cash into the parties' respective campaign chests; 7) the noisy advancement of Senatorial candidacies in 32 or more States, of Congressional candidacies in all 48; 8) the creation of nation-wide issues amidst the pulsing roar of partisan oratory; 9) the march of some 37,000,000 citizens on Nov. 8 to the polls to elect the 32nd President of the U. S. and the 73rd Congress,

1931 into 1932. What occurred in last week's elections was widely projected forward, in & out of the Press, in an attempt to illuminate the future and read the writing on the 1932 wall. Most unbiased observers agreed that the immediate outlook was better for the Democrats than the Republicans. The nipping wind of disapproval that started blowing against the White House in 1930 elections had not abated. The Hoover Administration, a tacit issue even in local contests, had regained none of its lost popularity. In 1928 President Hoover carried New Jersey by 309,000 votes. Last week New Jersey went Democratic by a 232,000-vote plurality. Even the Republicans there attributed their defeat to the disfavor of the national administration. In 1928 Kentucky was President Hoover's with 177.000 votes to spare. Last week it was lost to a Republican nominee for Governor by 71.523 votes. A spectacular overturn in a hidebound Republican district in Michigan turned the House of Representatives Democratic. Connecticut, carried by President Hoover by 44,574 votes three years ago, saw its two largest cities swing into the Democratic column. When Mr. Hoover entered the White House, his party had 56 Senators, 267 Congressmen and 30 Governors in power. Last week it had 47 Senators, 214 Representatives, 20 Governors.

Certain Choice. Regardless of the temper of the people as indicated by last year's or last week's election, the renomination of Herbert Hoover is almost as good as accomplished. Against him is only one formal and forlorn candidacy--Dr. Joseph Irwin France of Maryland (TIME, April 30). Dwight Whitney Morrow, on whom Wets pinned dreamy hopes, is dead. A vague stirring of Liberals for William Edgar Borah, with talk of cash support, received no encouragement from the Idaho Senator. The rank & file of the Republican Party may not be enthusiastic about their national leader but they have little choice about putting him again at the head of their ticket.

Wanted: A Chairman. The first Hoover duty after renomination will be to find a new G. 0. P. chairman to pilot his candidacy through the campaign. Bad luck or poor judgment characterized the President's first two choices for this prime political post. Claudius Hart Huston had to retire in near disgrace. Fussbudgety little Senator Fess of Ohio, present incumbent, is widely rated a party liability. Last week the Wet Eastern wing of the G. 0. P. renewed its cries for his removal. William Scott ("Boss") Vare, Pennsylvania's Senator-reject whose plumping for Herbert Hoover at Kansas City in 1928 gave him the nomination on the first ballot, declared: "The people are tired of Prohibition . . . the re-election of President Hoover is extremely doubtful. . . . Unless the policies of the party are changed, I doubt that 1932 will be a Republican year."

Ingalls for Governor-- What was generally assumed to be a preliminary move in the Hoover campaign occurred last week when in Washington Assistant Secretary of the Navy David Sinton Ingalls, Taft grandnephew and War ace, announced his intention to run for Governor of Ohio. He will, with the backing of National Committeeman Maurice Maschke and the Cleveland machine, seek the Republican nomination in the May primaries against two or more strong rivals. If successful there, he will go into the November election against popular Democratic Governor George White. President Hoover gave the Ingalls candidacy his blessing, on the theory that a member of his Administration campaigning vigorously in Ohio will help his own chances of carrying that State.

But well aware was 32-year-old Candi- date Ingalls that he has an uphill grind before him, that his chances of success are none too large. Said he frankly: "I know it will be a hard fight but I'll be in there to win." What will probably help him most is the engaging friendliness of his public manner. When he answers his telephone at the Navy Department, he says simply: "Hello--Dave Ingalls." His immediate superior booms out: "Hello! This is Ernest Lee Jahncke, Assistant Secretary, United States Navy, speaking."

Roosevelt v. Smith. In the popular mind, last week's elections added a cubit or so to the stature of GovernorFranklin Delano Roosevelt of New York as Democracy's lead candidate for the Presidency. Still across his availability fell the uncertain shadow of Alfred Emanuel Smith. Last month Governor Roosevelt and Mr. Smith got into a squabble over what otherwise would have been viewed as a political triviality on the New York State ballot. Submitted to the people was a proposal to amend the Constitution so that the State might spend some $20,000 over a period of years buying up abandoned farms and denuded lands ad joining State parks, and proceed to reforest them. Governor Roosevelt, Tam many Hall and all New York Republicans supported the proposal on a non-partisan basis. Mr. Smith startled his party by a slashing and repeated attack on the Amendment as a "gold brick" designed only to benefit the lumber and pulp companies which had cut over the now-barren territory. He also objected to the proposal's mandatory expenditure each year.

The reforestation amendment was car ried by an ample majority over the Smith objections. Interpreters rushed forward to claim this result as a personal triumph for Governor Roosevelt over Mr. Smith. "Oh, get out!" joshed the Governor at this suggestion. Small though the refores tation issue was, however, it did serve to remind people that Mr. Smith had yet to endorse the Roosevelt candidacy. The best guess was that Mr. Smith was dissatisfied with Governor Roosevelt's Prohibition stand, even suspected the latter of playing both ends against the middle to win Wet and Dry favor. Mr. Smith has vowed that the next Democratic nominee must be as Wet as he is. While Governor Roosevelt was last week getting the backing of Senator Clarence C. Dill of Washington, Mayor Cermak of Chicago was in New York hobnobbing with Tammany leaders and Mayor Frank Hague of Jersey City, presumably developing a tri-State Wet Democratic alliance.

Favorite Sons. No. 2 Democratic candidate of the moment is Governor Albert Cabell Ritchie of Maryland. His out-&-out Wetness led observers to believe that the Smith-Raskob wing of Democracy would favor him for the nomination if Governor Roosevelt persists in weasling. Newton Diehl Baker of Cleveland continued as a passive candidate. The name of Owen D. Young faded more & more out of Democratic Presidential speculation, due largely to his refusal to countenance his own candidacy. Favorite sons included Senator Joseph Taylor Robinson of Arkansas. Senator James Hamilton Lewis of Illinois, Governor-Elect Arthur Harry Moore of New Jersey, Governor William Henry Murray of Oklahoma. To get out of the "favorite son" category, "Cocklebur Bill" Murray prepared to run in the Maryland preferential Primaries next May, take a licking from Governor Ritchie.

Needed: Luck. An expression of opinion frequently heard among politicians last week: "Well, if Hoover was running for re-election today, he would be badly beaten." Even in California his friends were sorrowfully telling one another that the President probably could not now carry his own State. But the election was still 363 days off, in which time the whole political scene can and may change. Two major things may occur to improve President Hoover's chances of success: i) a turn for the better in the economic tide, with rising prices and increased trade, which would substantially dampen the "protest vote" now rampant; 2) Democratic blunders in managing the next House (see p. 12), followed by another Wet & Dry schism after the Democratic nomination.

*Last week Republican Committeemen were asked to be in Washington Dec. 15 to perform this duty. flf Herbert Hoover is reelected, he will remain the 31st President of the U. S.

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