Index

For three weeks prior to Washington's Birthday, stocks churned higher on big volume. Bullish rumors flooded Wall Street. There were stories of big bears trapped; of big deals brewing. International Telephone & Telegraph gained 100% over its January low and there were tales that it will again attempt to buy Radio Corp.'s communication business. Auburn leaped from $101 through $210 and bulls said they heard that General Motors had agreed to use Auburn's free-wheeling patents. Once again the names of Mike Meehan and William Crapo Durant were heard where speculators gathered.

Hope and a crowded short-interest rather than facts seemed to sponsor the rally. Steel ingot production hovered around 51% of capacity against 82% a year ago. But companies catering to the automobile trade were busier than others. There were rumors of steel price-cutting. Automobile Production during January came to 183,876 units against 161,223 in December and 283,606 in January 1930. Commodity Prices hit a new low average but the swift January drop seemed checked. Failures for the week were 722 against 585 in the corresponding week of 1930. Bank Clearings were 14.1% below last year. Carloadings for the first week in February were 719,053 against 885,816 last year. Electric Power output continued to run below 1930. Money was cheaper than last year, with New York time loans to brokers running at 2.10% against 5%, call loans at 1.5% against 4%.

From the indices there is no indication that the improvement in business is more than seasonal, if that. But if public confidence could be charted, a remarkable rise would be shown between December and February. And in that many a commentator based a strong conviction that the Depression has reached its depth, that the next change will surely be for the better.

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