Cotton Shortage

The ravages of the boll weevil and unfavorable weather conditions have combined to produce another "short crop" of cotton for the third successive year. As a result, cotton contracts for future delivery have experienced another sharp rise, even passing the 35-c- level.

According to the Government's latest forecast, this year's crop should amount to about 10,248,000 bales, which, with 650,000 linters and a 2,573,000 world carry-over from 1922, gives a total supply this season of 13,471,000 bales. The world's estimated consumption this year is 12,000,000 bales, which leaves a world's carry-over of only 1,471,000 bales. This carry-over is critically small-- more than a million bales less than that for 1922.

Just how critical the cotton shortage will prove, will depend upon consumption as well as production. Consumption for 1923 is estimated as 630,000 bales less than in 1922. Actually, we have so far this year exported 283,499 bales more than we had last year at this time, and consumption for 1923 may exceed the 12,000,000 bales estimated. On the other hand, the high retail price of cotton goods has already caused a partial buyers' strike, which of course cuts down consumption by spinners of the raw bale cotton. While mills will continue to buy even at present high prices, neither they nor the jobbers and retailers will stock up, in order to avoid being caught with the high-priced goods in a declining market. Lower cotton prices must come, however, mainly through increased production, which has come to be a gamble against the weather and the boll weevil.