A State of Flux

The resignation of Premier Theunis of Belgium (see page 11) was a blow to the Ruhr and reparation moves. Although the next Belgian Government is unlikely to change materially, its viewpoint on these two important questions, the hiatus caused by the fall of the Theunis Cabinet had the effect of throwing grit into the diplomatic machinery.

Premier Poincare received a definite setback from Britain. He asked that the British Government should endorse the French occupation of the Ruhr. Premier Baldwin stated in the House of Commons that in so far as the Ruhr occupation was concerned, the British Government had not changed in its attitude since Premier Bonar Law resigned.

The British Government is now determined to stake its reputation on ending the reparations problem. The British policy will therefore be to force a conference at the earliest possible date and to insist on a definite and final settlement by Germany and the interested Powers of the Ruhr and reparations issues. With this in view, France cannot maintain her present attitude of refusing to permit an international commission to define the maximum capacity of Germany to pay reparations.

Strong moves to bring the United States into the forthcoming discussions, which may take place next month, are still in progress. As the decisive settlement of the reparations tangle is generally thought to be inalienable from the issue of international war debts, the presence of the United States is considered indispensable in this connection.

The German industrialists are not so confident in the Cuno Government as they were. The French are daily consolidating their authority in the Ruhr. If France were to insist on retaining her hold on the vast coal resources of the Rhine, she would become the Iron Master of Europe, for she now holds the Saar Basin and Lorraine mines. The move in Germany is, then, to precipitate the downfall of Cuno and replace him with Herr Stresemann, the industrialists' tool, should the French refuse to evacuate the Ruhr either progressively or outright. Other interests are alive to the predominant position of France and are exerting pressure upon the Poincare Government. As far as France is concerned the reparations question cananot be entirely solved by a financial settlement. She has insisted for long enough that she must have guarantees for her security against aggression by Germany. These guarantees must be valid for a considerable number of years in order that France should not be molested as soon as Germany has regained economic prosperity.