Diplomatic Undercurrents

Aside from the outward manifestations in the Ruhr, the week's most important event in diplomatic circles was the British answer to the German note. It is evident that the British Government saw fit to seize a favorable opportunity to change its stand on the whole Ruhr question. Hitherto Great Britain has maintained an attitude of despairing neutrality upon a question which vitally affects her own interests; now she is determined to have her say in the ultimate peace offering that the Germans, sooner or later, are bound to make. The propitious moment arrived. France views with no inconsiderable alarm the position at Lausanne and more particularly in Syria, where both Turkish and French troops are glaring at each other with nothing between them except a frontier. The British are endeavoring to align themselves with Italy in forcing an issue in the Ruhr and in insisting upon full representation at a conference with the Germans. The blow is well timed, for France can hardly afford to risk a break with both Britain and Italy. As a corollary, it may be said that a Ruhr peace settlement is brought one step nearer to its realization.

The British and Italian notes advised Germany to make the substantial offer; that is, an offer of $11,900,000,000 and "to indicate with greater precision the nature of the guarantees they are disposed to offer." They also expressed disappointment that Germany had shown a lack of effort in stimulating an early settlement.

Meanwhile it is certain that the French policy toward the Germans has been definitely modified. The Poincare administration has gained and not lost prestige as a result of its more moderate attitude. In Paris it is officially admitted that the Mussolini-Jaspar-Stinnes negotiations in Italy and the Loucheur visit to Britain have had a far-reaching effect on French policy.

Apart from this there is a feeling in the French capital that the German propaganda for avoiding payment of reparations has failed, and that Germany can now be forced to make reasonable terms. There is no disposition on the part of the French Government to allow Germany to escape her just liabilities. Raymond

Poincare, speaking at Commercy, said: "We have known the Germans for nineteen hundred years, and we have never been able to notice much change in them. Whether they call themselves Germans, Astrogoths or Visigoths; whether they enroll themselves beside the Huns in the armies of Attila or put themselves under the leadership of the Prussians; whether they trick us at Leipzig; whether they are defeated at Ligny or the conquerors at Waterloo; whether they surround us at Sedan or are crushed along the Marne; whether they falsify the Ems telegram in 1870 or violate Belgian neutrality in 1914, they are a people for whom war is for all time their national industry and for whom peace is only an armistice between wars. . . . We are in the Ruhr," continued M Poincare. " So long as she (Germany) does not pay us she will not get us out! "

Germany will, no doubt, make a more substantial offer, but it is probable that a move in that direction will not be made until after the anticipated fall of Cuno. Herr Stresemann, who will in all probability succeed Cuno, is reported to be in communication with the great German industrialists, who are asked to place part of their resources at the disposal of the Reich to enable Germany to give tangible guarantees for the floating of an international gold loan.